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India Perspectives 2010
Exploring growth potential, technology evolution and regulatory developments
Published: December 2009
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Based on Informa's ongoing research on the Indian telecommunications market, this report comments on the current competitive landscape in India and assesses how operators may look to differentiate from each other in the midst of intense competition.
Divided into five chapters, the first paints a picture of the regulatory climate and studies the possible impact of MNP, 3G licensing and MVNOs and analyses some of the low-cost business models - network sharing, outsourcing and managed services - used to good effect by many of India's mobile operators.
Forecasts are the basis for the report's second chapter, which features Informa's five-year forecasts for India's mobile and broadband sectors. Aside from forecasts of subscription growth, this chapter also explores the future split of prepaid/postpaid usage, technology breakdowns and non-voice service revenues and traffic.
Much delayed, the prospect of 3G licensing in India now looms large and the third chapter analyses the need for this move to a next generation of technology usage and asks which operators might win licenses and questions the future of LTE and WiMAX in India. The final two chapters of the report are devoted to the future of non-voice services in India with Chapter 4 sizing the overall VAS market in terms of revenues and usage with forecasts to 2014 and Chapter 5 studying the future of mobile social networking in India, not because this is the most significant type of VAS, but because Informa thinks that it can deliver the much-needed "stickiness" required by operators.
Divided into five chapters, the first paints a picture of the regulatory climate and studies the possible impact of MNP, 3G licensing and MVNOs and analyses some of the low-cost business models - network sharing, outsourcing and managed services - used to good effect by many of India's mobile operators.
Forecasts are the basis for the report's second chapter, which features Informa's five-year forecasts for India's mobile and broadband sectors. Aside from forecasts of subscription growth, this chapter also explores the future split of prepaid/postpaid usage, technology breakdowns and non-voice service revenues and traffic.
Much delayed, the prospect of 3G licensing in India now looms large and the third chapter analyses the need for this move to a next generation of technology usage and asks which operators might win licenses and questions the future of LTE and WiMAX in India. The final two chapters of the report are devoted to the future of non-voice services in India with Chapter 4 sizing the overall VAS market in terms of revenues and usage with forecasts to 2014 and Chapter 5 studying the future of mobile social networking in India, not because this is the most significant type of VAS, but because Informa thinks that it can deliver the much-needed "stickiness" required by operators.
Key issues addressed:
- How rapid is the growth in India's wireless market?
- What are the main drivers of this growth?
- How can India's mobile operators sustain a profitable business model from such a low-ARPU customer base?
- What are Informa's forecasts for India's mobile and broadband sectors?
- In such an intensely competitive market, how will India's newest entrants set out to differentiate from existing operators?
- Why is winning a 3G license so important to India's mobile operators?
- Does WiMAX have a role to play in the future of India's telecommunications market?
- How important a revenue generator will VAS become in India over the next five years?
- Which services will operators rely on to increase customer "stickiness"?
Key Highlights:
- Much of the new mobile subscription growth will come from rural parts of India, where 70% of the population resides. However, about one-tenth of the Indian population still does not live in an area where there is cellular coverage, which means greater investment is still required from India's existing mobile operators as well as the country's newer entrants to serve the rural unconnected.
- Wireless subscription growth in India over the period 2008-2014 will exceed 200%. India is experiencing its strongest cellular growth ever, which has been particularly caused by the launch of new networks from many operators. Additional network launches should signal more strong growth in 2010 as increased competition is likely to lead to a further reduction in data and voice tariffs as well as high operator marketing spend from both existing and new operators.
- India's broadband penetration remains very low. As of end-June 2009 only 3.2% of Indian households had fixed broadband available (as defined by having Internet speeds greater than 256kbps). Informa estimates household PC penetration will be 7.4% at end-2009.
- India's Big Three operators - Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications and Vodafone India - are expected to scoop the vast majority of the country's 3G spectrum, which is due to be auctioned by 1Q10. Government-owned operators BSNL and MTNL have failed to make headway into the 3G market, with their services inhibited by high tariffs and expensive handset prices.
- Informa believes that the mobile VAS market in India was worth US$2.68 billion in 2008. Over the next five years, the market is expected to grow at a strong CAGR of more than 30% and generate revenues of US$13.82 billion in 2014.
Market Data Covered:
- India, mobile subscription growth, 1Q08-3Q09
- India, mobile operator market shares, 3Q09
- India, mobile subscriptions penetration map, 3Q09
- India, subscriptions, subscribers and subscription growth, 2009-2014
- India, voice and data revenues, 2009-2014
- India, mobile subscriptions, by technology, 2009-2014
- India, mobile subscription forecasts, by operator, 2009-2014
- India, broadband subscriptions and penetration forecasts, 2008-2014
- India, broadband subscriptions, by technology, end-June 2009
- India, broadband subscriptions forecasts, by technology, 2008-2014
- India, broadband subscriptions, by technology, % of overall subscriptions, 2008-2014
- India, 3G subscriptions, 1Q09-3Q09
- BSNL's 3G tariffs, 4Q09
- India, 3G spectrum reserve prices
- India, mobile VAS revenue share, by type of service, 2009
- India, mobile VAS revenues, by service type, 2008 and 2014
- India, mobile VAS users, by service type, 2008-2014
- India, mobile VAS events, by service type, 2008-2014
- India, total mobile subscribers using mobile social networking, forecasts for three scenarios, 2008-2013
- India, mobile social networking community registrations, forecasts for three scenarios, 2008-2013
Pricing Information
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| For multi-user licenses please contact our customer service team on +44 (0)20 7017 5533 or email telecoms.enquiries@informa.com | |
