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WCIS Insight: Global Mobile Market Outlook 2009
Survival of the Fittest - facing the challenges of brutal competition, market saturation and a global financial crisis
Published: December 2008
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Through a series of regional case studies, this Insight provides an outlook for key mobile trends in 2009 for a diverse set of mobile markets. Each chapter looks at the impact of the intensification in competition, market saturation and the effects of the global financial crisis to market growth and mobile operator strategies.
Key issues addressed:
- What effect will the global financial downturn have on global mobile markets in 2009?
- How will operators look to differentiate services and content offerings from those of their competitors in 2009?
- What will be the impact of increasingly intense competition on global mobile markets in 2009?
- How will the global M&A landscape be reshaped in 2009?
- Will WCDMA deployments in 2009 help to increase faltering ARPU rates?
- Which new technologies will operators look to deploy in 2009 and beyond?
- In which markets will mobile broadband services continue to pick up in terms of popularity?
- As the global financial crisis begins to hit the real economy, what will be the impact on data revenue spend and the popularity of mobile entertainment services?
Key Highlights:
- Despite concerns over the economic downturn, subscription growth during 3Q08 remained steady, and is expected to continue to do so in Africa, the Middle East and Asia Pacific in 2009. It is still too early to tell of the full effect of the global financial crisis, and in any case, we contend that subscriptions are unlikely to be hit, with data revenue spend a more likely victim.
- The M&A market will continue to be lively in 2009 with operators such as Zain and Etisalat suggesting that the global economic downturn provides them with an opportunity to acquire more emerging market assets. Both operators have their eyes set firmly on the fast-growing African market.
- Despite the gloom surrounding job cuts promised by AT&T throughout 2009, there is some cautious optimism in the US market surrounding Clear’s nationwide mobile WiMAX deployment in 2009, with the network likely to cover more than 120 million people by the end of 2010. Verizon Wireless also expects to begin deployment of its LTE network in 2009, ready for commercial launch the following year.
- In Germany (and many other West European markets) we expect mobile broadband take-up to increase as operators gear up to satisfy consumer demand. But the addition of smaller-scale value- added services too, such as mobile payment, will help carriers to differentiate offerings from those of their competitors.
- The Middle East region is likely to suffer from any prolonged global crisis, hit by factors including fewer expatriate jobs and a slowdown in construction projects, but yet we forecast a considerable increase in data revenue spend as services such as mobile broadband continue to rise in popularity.
- Extensive WCDMA deployments planned in Russia in 2009 will create heavier levels of data traffic and should result in ARPU growth.
- India and Nigeria offer great potential for subscription growth in 2009. However, at a time when operators in both markets need to invest further in their network rollout, companies will need to cut operating costs where possible, which could give a lift to outsourcing and network sharing projects.
Market Data Covered
- Global subscription growth with regional breakdown 2007-08
- Global data revenue by spend with regional breakdown 2007-08
- Mobile subscription data, Germany 2007-08
- Blended ARPU data (by operator), Germany 2007-08
- Operator capex data, Germany 2007-08
- Mobile subscription data, Russia 2000-10
- MoU data, Russia 2003-08
- WCDMA & HSPA forecasts, Russia 2008-13
- WiMAX deployment data, USA 2008
- Planned LTE deployments, USA 2010-12
- Operator churn data, USA 2007-08
- Mobile subscription data, Middle East 2000-10
- Mobile subscription data, Iran 2006-08
- WCDMA & HSPA forecasts, Middle East 2008-13
- Mobile subscription data, Nigeria 2007-08
- Mobile data subscription numbers, Nigeria 2007-08
- Blended ARPU data (by operator), Nigeria 2007-08
- Regional mobile operator footprint, India 2008
- Blended ARPU data (by operator), India 2007-08
- WCDMA forecasts, India 2008-13
Who should read this report:
- Operators
- Vendors
- Telecoms strategists
- Content Providers
- Financial Institutions
- Consultancies
- Government
- Regulators
Markets Covered:
- Germany
- Russia
- USA
- Middle East
- Nigeria
- India
Pricing Information
| WCIS Insight: Global Mobile Market Outlook 2009 online license single user | GBP 500 USD 950 EUR 750 |
| For multi-user licenses please contact our customer service team on +44 (0)20 7017 5533 or email telecoms.enquiries@informa.com | |
